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Play it by year: what global political trends have been revealed by 2024’s record slate of elections?

December 2024
 by Adam Ispahani

Play it by year: what global political trends have been revealed by 2024’s record slate of elections?

December 2024
 By Adam Ispahani

As the calendar for 2024 began to take shape, some of the world’s prognosticators aptly christened it the “Year of Democracy” due to the anticipated record number of elections taking place over these 366 days. Once this year draws to a close, over 50 countries will have held leadership elections, with these contests open to approximately 1.5 billion voters across countries that account for over half of the world’s 8 billion strong population. This unprecedented level of democratic engagement has illuminated a number of trends taking hold across the global political landscape, highlighting ways in which seemingly disparate nations actually face similar challenges. The proliferation of AI tools has made a mark in multiple contests as expected, while the traditional perception of the generational divide amongst voters is being challenged by a new interpretation. Dissecting these trends is critical in illuminating the future of world politics and may help to identify the most effective methods of mitigating their most dangerous side effects.

Uncanny Vall-e

Since the great leap forward in AI technologies in late 2022, their threat to the future of humanity has been arguably the world’s biggest topic of discussion. However, this sheer volume of elections in 2024 has provided the first substantial insight into how these tools are affecting the present day. The impact of AI on elections has been varied, in large part due to the different ways this technology has been deployed. In the US, both major political parties have been accused of employing this technology to spread disinformation, with multiple Republican-backed adverts on social media and TV making use of AI-generated imagery and one former Democratic staffer indicted and fined for having employed an unauthorised AI-voice model of President Biden to discourage voters from participating in the New Hampshire primary. In Pakistan, PTI leader Imran Khan made use of AI-voice tools to “give” speeches to his supporters from behind bars, while the BJP and INC parties in India both employed AI influencers to promote their policies.

However, while there has been a lot of noise around the use of AI in this year’s elections, the actual impact of these tools has arguably been muted. Increased awareness of this technology’s capability has resulted in increased caution among the world’s voters, with many political parties now taking steps to raise awareness of their official channels. Heightened alertness has drastically limited the efficacy of deepfakes in particular. Despite major concerns being raised about their impact on elections, very few incidents have been reported this year. In fact, the Turing Institute published research suggesting that no European elections results were truly affected by deepfakes, although they did still raise concerns about their future application in parody. It is anticipated that these tools will continue to improve in quality, thus it is critical that our identification skills keep improving. Finland is taking a particularly proactive approach in this regard as they, having taught media literacy for the past two decades, are now including AI recognition skills in the national curriculum. Other countries have since expressed an ambition to implement similar programmes, suggesting that the impact of AI may not actually be what was initially anticipated.

Mind The Gap

There has long been a perceived generational divide between younger and older voters, traditionally considered to pertain to political affiliation. However, in recent years discontent and apathy have taken hold of the world’s young electorate, dissuading many from participating entirely, with data from 2021 showing that UK voters below 35 were 24% less likely to actually cast a ballot than those above 65. As such, political parties worldwide have been making a concerted effort to court the youth vote, with some parties even working together simply to encourage turnout. Celebrity endorsements, permitted absences from universities and work, as well as social media campaigns are some of the tactics that have been employed in this pursuit. Detailed data from many of this year’s elections is not yet available, but early signs indicate that these strategies have had the desired effect. This year’s legislative election in France saw the highest voter turnout since 1997, with the youth vote coming at its highest level in nearly four decades. These numbers are even more encouraging when considering the context of this snap election, with the vote taking place mere weeks after it was announced.

Increased youth engagement is undeniably important for the future of democracy. However, the variety of parties that received these votes is arguably more interesting. France and Germany saw a rise in support from young voters for right-wing groups, while many in the UK eschewed the two biggest parties and instead backed a third option, propelling the Liberal Democrats to their biggest ever haul. This makes it apparent that many among the new electorate do not feel the pressure to support the traditionally big parties in much of the world, a stark contrast with generations past, although it does remain to be seen whether this increased malleability will persist. It is also important to consider that young people now tend to consume most of their information through social media platforms that allow for more entities to engage with voters. However, they are also breeding grounds for misinformation and disinformation, highlighting the risk and double-edged nature of this phenomenon.

What’s On Next?

While these trends may continue to present themselves worldwide, the responses to them are unlikely to be uniform. AI use and regulation is already varied as nations struggle to strike a balance between fostering the development of this technology and preventing its misuse from causing havoc. Increasing education on how to identify AI content, like the aforementioned initiative in Finland, appear to be a promising solution. However, Nordic policies tend to be more difficult to implement in other countries, which will likely result in novel approaches to tackling this issue. As the size of the young electorate continues to grow, maintaining their engagement will remain a priority worldwide. It is unclear though how their voting patterns will evolve, which could give fresh hope to many smaller political parties that may break through into the mainstream. The likelihood of this varies between countries, but the fact that this is even worthy of speculation underscores a shift in the tide through 2024.

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